So at the beginning of the season, Baseball Prospectus ran an interesting contest called "Predictatron 2005" Predictatron rules

Predictatron is a contest to try and predict the outcomes of 2,430 regular season baseball games and another two or three dozen playoff games.

GOAL

To predict – as accurately as possible – the outcome of the 2005 season. Using the official ballot, predict the number of victories for each major league team in the year 2005, which teams will meet in the Divisional Series, League Championship Series, World Series and which team will be the World Champion. Your selections as to which teams will make the playoffs cannot contradict the standings in your predicted season! (For instance, you cannot predict a team to finish third in their division with 72 victories and have them in your playoff bracket.)

SCORING

Everyone begins with 1,000 points.

For each victory your prediction is off, you will lose one point. For instance, if you predict San Diego will have 71 victories and they finish with 90, you will lose 19 points. Guessing high or low is equally negative. If you predict a team will have 81 victories, you would lose 4 points if they win 85 games and you would lose 4 points if they win 77 games. At the end of the regular season, the total number of victories by which you missed will be subtracted from 1,000.

THE MORTAL LOCK

In each league, you must pick one team that you designate as your Mortal Lock. This difference between this team’s actual number of victories and your prediction will count double against you. For example, if you pick the Dodgers to win 95 games and they only win 82, you will lose 26 points instead of 13. Important: You must designate as your mortal lock a team you are predicting to win either 90 or more games or 72 or fewer games.

You start gaining points back in the playoffs.

For every team you predicted to make the playoffs that actually does make the playoffs, you get 2 points. (Note: here you catch a break. If you predict a team to win their division and they are, instead, the wildcard team (or visa versa), you still get the 2 points. By not selecting them in the right order, however, you might lose the opportunity to make extra points in the later rounds, based on the manner in which they advance.)

For each team you select correctly to go on to the LCS, you get 4 points.

For each team you select correctly to go on to the World Series, you get 8 points.

For selecting the World Series victor, you get 16 points.

YOUR REWARD

The overall winner of Predictatron 2005 will be awarded $500 and a mint-condition, signed, framed photo reproduction of Commissioner of Major League Baseball Bud Selig*.

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So, how did I do …. ? 

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Not too shabby, finishing in the top 15% overall.  I even beat out the majority of BP writers.

Let’s look at my pre-season ballot, and where I went wrong …

dianagramr’s score: 1000 – 191 + 16 = 825

For the sake of space, I’ll only comment on those I missed +/- 5 games:

Will the award grow in stature over time?

"Who will win the 2005 MLB^® Comeback Player of the Year Award Presented by Viagra (sildenafil citrate)?

Viagra (sildenafil citrate) and Major League Baseball (MLB) are teaming up to recognize the greatest comeback players in the sport — those baseball heroes who have reemerged as stars on the baseball field."

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They tried to award it to Griffey in each of the last three years, but each time … it turned out to be a bit "premature".